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Climate change, conflict and fragility: an evidence review and recommendations for research and action

Research reports

Written by Katie Peters, Mairi Dupar, Sarah Opitz-Stapleton, Emma Lovell, Yue Cao

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This report looks at the evidence on the links between violent conflict and climate-related hazards, disasters and natural resources. It explores the relationship between conflict and short-term, extreme weather events (such as tropical storms), and other natural hazards (such as earthquakes) that can trigger humanitarian disasters. It also considers slow-onset and long-term changes in natural resources related to the climate (such as drought and land degradation), their impacts on people and livelihoods, and the incidence of violent conflict. 

The potential to adapt and apply DFID’s (2016) Building Stability Framework to donor programming in natural resource-scarce environments, including in climate-related projects and programmes, is examined. The framework focuses on fair power structures, effective and legitimate institutions, inclusive economic development and curbing illicit economies, conflict resolution mechanisms and a supportive regional environment. Each of these dimensions is explored in the report through the prism of climate and natural resources.

Snapshot of the report cover image

Katie Peters, Mairi Dupar, Sarah Opitz-Stapleton, Emma Lovell, Mirianna Budimir, Sarah Brown and Yue Cao