This SLRC briefing paper summarises the findings of a working paper exploring the evidence on growth, economic activity and livelihoods in fragile and conflict-affected situations. It discusses the impacts of conflict and growth and livelihoods, the effectiveness of aid programming, and the role of enabling environments in supporting recovery.
Three key messages emerge:
- The evidence base on growth and livelihoods in conflict-affected situations is comprised of four distinct ‘categories’ of evidence
- We know strikingly little about the impacts of livelihood and economic interventions in conflict-affected environments, and programming choices often appear to be driven by assumptions of effectiveness and unsubstantiated narratives of success
- Conflict-affected economies demonstrate surprisingly strong GDP growth rates, but methodological weaknesses suggest the data need to be treated with great caution