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Managing the geopolitical risks of Ukraine’s reconstruction: unlocking financial diplomacy

Time (GMT +01) 15:30 17:00
Image credit:Oleksandr Ratushniak / UNDP Ukraine Image license:CC BY-ND 2.0
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The costs of post-war reconstruction in Ukraine keep rising. The country and its allies have already started to discuss post-war reconstruction, but significant questions remain about how to raise and coordinate finance, attract private investment, address some of Ukraine’s pre-war structural weaknesses, and navigate a shifting geopolitical landscape. These questions pose significant challenges to reconstruction efforts.

This ODI event, which took place ahead of the 2023 Ukraine Recovery Conference in London, brought together key financial stakeholders to discuss some of the key questions: What does financing Ukraine reconstruction post-conflict look like? Who is going to finance it? And what are some of the mechanisms to mitigate these risks in the context of continued geopolitical volatility?

The event was organised by ODI's Global Risks and Resilience Programme as part of its work in analysing the risks to and opportunities for Ukraine's post-war reconstruction. Speakers included Vladyslav Rashkovan, Alternate Executive Director, IMF; Timothy Ash, Senior Emerging Markets Sovereign Strategist, Bluebay Asset Management; Rebecca Nadin, Director of ODI's Global Risks And Resilience Programme; Jason McCue, Senior Partner, Mccue Jury & Partners LLP; Makar Paseniuk, Founding Partner, ICU; Dmytro Natalukha, Ukrainian MP And Chair Of Ukraine’s Economic Affairs Committee; Sergiy Tsivkach, CEO Of Ukraineinvest, Investment Promotion Office Of The Government Of Ukraine; Alexander Pivovarsky, Director, Capital & Financial Markets, EBRD; Meyrick Chapman, Principal, Hedge Analytics; and Lew Lukens, Senior Partner, CEO Of UK & Europe, Signum Global Advisors. The event was chaired by Iain Martin, columnist at The Times and the founder of Reaction. Opening and closing remarks were provided by Dominic McVey, ODI Board Member, and Rathin Roy, ODI Managing Director.

Running order

00:00 Dominic McVey – Introduction and opening remarks

02:09 Iain Martin – Introduction to the first panel

Panel 1 – Reconstruction: How much and who pays? Risks and Trade-offs to unlocking the capital

03:04 Vladyslav Rashkovan – How much will post-war reconstruction in Ukraine cost?

04:51 Timothy Ash – How can we incentivise the public sector, not just the private sector, to invest in Ukraine’s reconstruction?

07:08 Rebecca Nadin – What are China’s ambitions in Russia and Ukraine?

09:53 Jason McCue – Can we use Russia’s frozen assets to fund reconstruction?

11:59 Makar Paseniuk – Why are structural reforms so important in the context of Ukraine investment?

Panel 2 – Managing the risks: Can financial diplomacy create a better risk environment to drive confidence in the reconstruction effort?

14:16 Iain Martin – Introduction to second panel

14:48 Dmytro Natalukha – On the need to face Ukraine’s corruption

16:46 Sergiy Tsivkach – On international companies’ continued investment in Ukraine

18:07 Alexander Pivovarsky – What does the EBRD’s Ukraine Recovery Guarantee Facility aim to do?

19:50 Meyrick Chapman –What legal reforms are needed to incentivise investors?

22:05 Lew Lukens – Does the USA plan to continue with current levels of support to Ukraine?

24:21 Susan Walton and Lew Lukens – How does the UK’s special relationship with the USA impact its support to Ukraine?

25:09 Rebecca Nadin – How the Global South responds to the war with Ukraine

26:23 Rathin Roy – Closing remarks