Understanding the climate and net-zero transition risks and opportunities in Uzbekistan

Renewable energy potential remains untapped in Uzbekistan and it could be utilised to ensure energy mix diversification and a sustainable energy supply. Uzbekistan has the highest potential for solar energy when compared to Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, with some 80% of the country suitable for solar PV outputs of 1,400 to 1,600 kWh/kWp/year.

The transition to renewable energy could make both public and private markets accessible to investors in Uzbekistan. An increased RE share in the energy mix can significantly increase Uzbekistan’s generation capacities. Transition also presents an opportunity to integrate renewables and energy efficiency goals that could have a mutually advantageous impact on policy development to address climate change. A combined portfolio of renewables and energy efficiency technologies could reduce emissions by one-third to one-half.

Key Messages

The estimated levelised cost of electricity for solar PV in Uzbekistan is lower than both the global average, but also the country LCOEs for gas and coal thermal power plants.
The transition offers co-benefits in terms of job creation, reducing emissions, reducing climate risk by diversifying generation portfolios and improving the viability of the energy sector. Nonetheless, doing so will require tackling the many policy challenges that impede the transformation of the energy sector.
Uzbekistan’s future energy infrastructure must be designed with increasing demand, including that related to economic growth and diversification, climate change, and other threats like cyber-attacks in mind.
The country should conduct full semi-quantitative to quantitative all-hazards risk assessments to identify risks over the decades that the infrastructure will operate, and to understand the costs and benefits of mitigation.