Understanding the climate and net-zero transition risks and opportunities in Tajikistan

Tajikistan is already experiencing climate change impacts. Climate change projections for the 2050s indicate seasonal and annual shifts in both temperatures and precipitation, as well as increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme events that will affect the country’s energy systems. Melting glaciers and snowpack could impact the generation capacity of large-scale hydropower along some river reaches.

Key Messages

Hydropower remains the most cost-competitive source of energy in Tajikistan, and is a priority for investment. The country has significant untapped potential for solar and wind energy – solar could meet 10–20% of its energy demand. While solar PV and wind are still cost-intensive compared to hydropower and fossil fuels, costs have been declining.
Increasing the share of wind and solar PV offers co-benefits in terms of job creation, reducing emissions, reducing climate risk by diversifying generation portfolios and improving the viability of the energy sector. Nonetheless, doing so will require tackling many policy challenges which impede the transformation of the energy sector.
Tajikistan’s future energy infrastructure must be designed with increasing demand, including that related to economic growth and diversification, climate change and other threats like cyber-attacks in mind.
The country should conduct full semi-quantitative to quantitative all-hazards risk assessments to identify risks over the decades that the infrastructure will operate, and to understand the costs and benefits of mitigation.

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