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Scoping and design for taking forecast-based early action to scale: three case studies

Working paper

Written by Thomas Tanner, Lena Nur, Simon Levine, Florence Pichon

Working paper

Forecast-based early action is emerging among humanitarian and disaster risk management practitioners as an approach that can reduce the impact of shocks on vulnerable people and their livelihoods, improve the effectiveness of emergency preparedness, response and recovery efforts, and reduce the humanitarian burden.

The field of forecast-based early action is rapidly expanding, and consolidating the evidence, experience and lessons from early efforts to develop forecast-based action and finance tools can help improve the impacts and effectiveness of future investments.

These studies consider three types of humanitarian financing-delivery ‘systems’: an international fund and UN delivery mechanism (CERF); a national social protection delivery system (HSNP in Kenya); and enhanced coordination between non-state and state actors (in Bangladesh). The working papers set out the context and rationale for scaling up each system and describe the process of co-production used to bring together the necessary stakeholders to develop a sound concept.

Thomas Tanner, Lena Weingartner, Florence Pichon, Bill Gray, Kiswendsida Guigma, Jafar Iqbal, Simon Levine, David MacLeod, Khairun Nahar, Kaiser Rejve, Courtenay Cabot Venton, Catalina Jaime, Martin Todd and Stephen McDowell