This book explores Prospects for trade and capital flows in the developing countries and focuses on new sources and direction for investment.
Forecasters, like lenders to emerging markets, never learn. In the early 1990s, as in the early 1980s, after a period in which the out turn had been persistently disappointing, the potential for a strong revival was not recognised.
Forecasters did not expect the strong performance of 1994 and they remain cautious about the future.
The argument that uncertainties were reducing confidence and holding growth back should have signalled a recovery in 1994 when many of these problems had been resolved, and a long-lasting improvement in performance. Output and trade growth in 1994 proved to be better than expected, in total and in most areas.