​The Nepal Trade Integration Strategy 2010 identified the expansion of trade as one of the key drivers of inclusive growth in Nepal going forward. This and the more recent Immediate Action Plan on Economic Development and Prosperity, published in 2012, set out a number of policies to promote export competitiveness and growth. The success of these policies will depend to a large extent on the global trade patterns shaping the opportunities that Nepal faces.

Our analysis suggests that over the next 10 years, global trade patterns will be transformed by climate change, international mitigation, and natural-resource scarcity, resulting in an inevitable shift over time to a low-carbon global economy. This study has been asking what this might look like. What impact will it have on Nepal’s competitiveness and growth? What threats and opportunities will it create? And how should policy-makers and businesses respond?

This report examines how these issues could play out in Nepal over the next decade, particularly focusing on the energy, forestry and tourism sectors. It has identified potential opportunities and threats to Nepal’s competitiveness and growth, and possible policy responses.

Karen Ellis, Alberto Lemma and Andrew Scott with Asish Subedi and Ratnakar Adhikari