​The aim of Kenya’s Vision 2030 initiative is to create a globally competitive and prosperous nation with a high quality of life by the year 2030. The success of this approach will depend to a large extent on the global trade patterns shaping the opportunities that Kenya faces.

Our analysis suggests that over the next 10 years, global trade patterns will be transformed by climate change, international mitigation, and natural-resource scarcity, resulting in an inevitable shift over time to a low-carbon global economy. This study has been asking what this might look like. What impact will it have on Kenya’s competitiveness and growth? What threats and opportunities will it create? And how should policy-makers and businesses respond?

This report examines how these issues could play out in Kenya over the next decade, particularly focusing on the energy, agriculture and manufacturing sectors. It has identified potential opportunities and threats to Kenya’s competitiveness and growth, and possible policy responses.