The consensus of the forecasters is that the recovery of industrial countries from the recession of 1980-82 is coming to an end. After the 'rapid' growth of last year and the first half of 1984, they are slowing down and by 1985 they will have returned to the rates observed in the years following the first oil price rise.
In contrast to industrial countries which grew more than
expected last year and are continuing to do so this year,
developing countries' output rose less than forecasters expected in 1983 and forecasts for this year have been lowered. The only exception are some of the low income countries (especially South Asia).
There are a wide variety of possible explanations for a change in the 'transmission mechanisms' between the developed and the developing countries, some of which seem to be directly linked to either the nature of the recession or the type of
recovery while others are more structural. The work that is being done is leading to greater awareness of possible effects and therefore to more useful discussions in the reports of the nature and size of the uncertainties attached to their forecasts, but there are no firm conclusions.