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Economic prospects for developing countries 1990s

Book/book chapter

Written by Sheila Page

This paper reviews the main features of international economic forecasts published this year. According to Sheila Page, the forecasts offered are not transparent in indicating what their quantitative estimates are for the effects of a GATT settlement, or failure to reach one.

Therefore, it is necessary to examine the nature of relationships between the industrial countries and the developing countries, and especially any regional forces which may be operating. This report will therefore look particularly at the expectations and analyses of the various international forecasting groups on the prospects for capital flows, which could help to explain how the former links between countries and between output and trade have been weakened. It will also look more briefly at some of the regional trading blocs, negotiated or proposed, which could permit further divergences among areas.

This report will not look in detail at the performance of the Eastern European countries, or the countries of the former USSR.

Sheila Page