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Conflict, pro-poorest growth, and wellbeing: a subnational analysis

Research reports

Written by Andrew Shepherd, Vidya Diwakar, Georgina Sturge

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Conflict is closely associated with slow growth, extreme poverty and deprivation. How to stimulate poverty-alleviating growth in fragile and conflict affected states (FCAS) is less clear.

This paper addresses that knowledge gap by applying new analytical techniques to existing data, helping to assess the impact of different types of pro-poor interventions in FCAS. It examines poverty trends in FCAS compared to other developing countries and reviewing the literature expounding the links between conflict, poverty, and growth. It then presents methods used in the analysis before proceeding to explore conflict at the subnational level and its effects on poverty outcomes and trajectories.

The paper answers the following questions:

  • What are the implications of conflict and changes in conflict over time for growth, poverty and wellbeing?
  • What can the analysis of panel data tell us about poverty and wellbeing dynamics in conflict-affected situations at the national and/or subnational level, and the causes of these dynamics?
  • Is there evidence that some pro-poor policies benefit the poorest even in subnational situations of conflict, while others do not or do less so?
  • Having identified the relationships between conflict, poverty dynamics and pro-poorest growth, what policy challenges emerge and what implications may be drawn?
Andrew Shepherd, Vidya Diwakar and Georgina Sturge