This report provides evidence of the losses that would incur to Botswana when losing its current level of preferences for beef exports in the EU market, with the end of the Cotonou Agreement’s trading component at the end of 2007. The report measures the impact on Botswana’s rural economy and on the patterns of employment and diversification. It looks at the potential effects of a less favourable trading regime on government income and expenditure, specifically with reference poverty alleviation / reduction. Finally, the study explores alternative regional and international trading arrangements for Botwana and outlined some key policy recommendations for the government to move forward in this important area. The report concludes that the application of the MFN tariff fails to provide an equivalent alternative trade regime as stipulated in Art. 37.6 of the Cotonou Agreement. In contrary, imposing the MFN tariff would result in a punitive taxation that is most likely to stop Botswana’s beef exports immediately. The report finds further, that it is highly unlikely that Botswana finds alternative markets that offer remunerative prices and a high protection degree within less than six months.
Chris Stevens, Mareike Meyn, Jane Kennan