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Global shocks and Low-Income Countries: Vulnerability, impact and policy implications

Time (GMT +01) 14:00 17:30


At this ODI-IMF roundtable, IMF staff presented the findings of their first comprehensive “Vulnerability Exercise” for Low-Income Countries (“VE-LIC”). Using a novel analytical framework, the study provides an in-depth look at LICs’ exposure to emerging global risks, with a focus on two “tail risks” scenarios—a potential sharp global downturn and possible further commodity price volatility. The analysis indicates that LICs are now less well-equipped to address the adverse effects of another global shock than they were prior to the twin crises in 2008/09, although vulnerabilities differ significantly across countries. The study highlights related economic policy challenges for LICs, and possible implications for the role of the international community and development actors. The study was presented by Hugh Bredenkamp, Deputy Director of the IMF’s Strategy, Policy, and Review Department and the IMF delegation included Stefania Fabrizio and Christian Mumssen. This was followed by a discussion involving ODI researchers, academics, development practitioners and officials divided.