In recent years, global markets have shown extraordinary and unprecedented levels of volatility. From the sharp food and fuel price spikes of 2008 to the global economic crisis of 2009, it has been clear that global economic forces can transmit rapid effects onto the development pathways of all low- and lower-middle income countries, but that the specifics of each event can vary enormously.
This project will review the evolving global macro-economic situation, assess the vulnerability of developing countries to global economic, energy and financial shocks, monitor their impacts and analyse policy responses at the country and global level.
Two major areas of focus will be:
- the vulnerability of developing countries to oil price shocks and the most promising policy responses to energy shock crises, and
- the exposure of low- and lower-middle income countries to the European debt crisis and their ability to respond with adequate policies to prevent or contain its effects.
During 2012 and 2013, in-depth studies and analysis will be produced to monitor the impact of major global economic shocks on low-income countries, focusing on those which are most relevant for their growth.
These ‘bulletins’ will include follow-up tracking of the shocks already under analysis, along with new topics of importance, such as the implications of an economic slowdown in China and India, and discussion of country-level impacts.